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DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/12 10:54
Corn Futures Higher at Midday Wednesday; Soybeans, Wheat Mixed
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures
are narrowly mixed; wheat futures are narrowly mixed.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures
are narrowly mixed; wheat futures are narrowly mixed. The U.S. stock market is
mixed at midday with the S&P unchanged. The U.S. Dollar Index is unchanged. The
interest rate products are mixed. Energy trade is sharply lower with crude off
2.10 and natural gas is .05 lower. Livestock trade is sharply lower after early
strength. Precious metals are sharply higher with gold up 75.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher in quiet midday action as we continue
to work rangebound as we head toward the long-delayed WASDE report on Friday.
On the report trade is looking for corn yield at 183.8 bushels per acre (bpa)
versus 186.7 bpa on the last report in September with carryout at 2.125 billion
bushels (bb) versus 2.11 bb in September. Ethanol margins should remain mostly
stable with the weekly report delayed until Thursday with Monday's holiday.
Harvest should hit the downhill stretch with mostly open weather through this
week. Fresh export sales are expected to have held up well with government
reporting expected to return soon. Basis should start moving toward
post-harvest levels toward the end of the month. On the December chart, support
is the 20-day moving average at $4.28 with the next round up the fall high at
$4.37.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are narrowly mixed in quiet midday trade as we faded back
from the initial overnight test of resistance with meal leading the product
side of the complex. Meal is 1.00 to 2.00 higher and oil is 60 to 70 points
lower. On the report, trade is looking for yields of 53.1 bpa versus 53.5 bpa
prior and carryout at 315 million bushels (mb) versus 300 mb last time. Harvest
on remaining acres should be closer to being fully wrapped up nationally with
open weather to help. South American weather looks to remain good for the early
growing season with some of Brazil seeing a bit of short-term dryness. Basis
should continue to firm if a trade deal delivers a more-normal fall-export pace
into the end of the year, but greater confirmation of short-term movement will
be needed. On the January chart, resistance is the $11.37 area where we find
the fresh high from last week with the 20-day moving average well below the
market at $10.91.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are narrowly mixed at midday with trade rebounding from early
selling as we consolidate the recent range further. On the report, trade is
looking for carryout at 868 mb versus 844 mb last time. Weather should remain
mostly favorable for the Plains in the short term with early stands expected to
be good overall with warmer temps retuning to the Plains for the balance of the
week. MATIF wheat is slightly higher as well. Southern Hemisphere wheat harvest
continues to make good progress. On the KC December chart, support is the
20-day moving average at $5.13 that we are getting close to testing with the
next round up the fall high at $5.40 from last week.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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